What supermarkets will do as droughts threaten food shortages

Earlier this week it was announced by the UK’s Environment Agency that around half of England was facing drought conditions after a prolonged period of hot weather. In recent weeks, temperatures have remained well above 20C and barely any rain has fallen, leaving parts of the UK dry and barren. Beyond visual changes, millions of people are now subject hosepipe bans.

However, there are now growing fears that people could soon see food shortages in their local supermarkets because of drought conditions affecting what farmers can produce. Speaking to the Express, Professor Angelina Sanderson Bellamy, Professor of Food Systems at UWE Bristol, explained which vegetables may soon see shortages, but also how supermarkets actually react to these circumstances.

Professor Sanderson explained: “Most supermarket supply chains will either accept produce to a lower cosmetic standard during drought conditions or can supplement reduced supply from the UK with produce from elsewhere in the world, so it is not often that consumers experience the production shortfalls.”

On how this might affect the food we would see in the supermarket, she said: “Farmers in the UK are already reporting reduced yields, for example, much smaller heads of cauliflower and broccoli. A larger impact will be felt by the farming community as a result of reduced cereal yields and pasture growth.

“This will reduce farmers’ income, especially if they have to rely on winter silage or supplementary feed, both of which will introduce additional costs for production.”

Professor Sanderson isn't the only expert to comment on what how the UK's supermarkets could behave if the current hot and dry conditions continue, with executive director at global supply chain and consultancy SCALA, Chris Clowes, adding: "Immediate widespread shortages remain unlikely.

"Retailers will typically protect their core product lines, meaning consumers are more likely to see fewer varieties, more imported alternatives, higher prices and temporary limits on selected products.”

However, Mr Clowes put forward his theory as to which products might be affected, he suggested: "If drought conditions persist, supply of products such as lettuce, cucumbers, tomatoes, and strawberries is likely to come under significant pressure.

"Farmers have been vocal in recent weeks about potential shortages and for good reason; poor harvests can lead to low availability on supermarket shelves within days."

Professor Sanderson’s and Mr Clowes' comments about the UK’s food production comes as major supermarkets such as Tesco, Aldi, Waitrose, Co-op and Sainsbury’s signed a letter to Prime Minister Andy Burnham to make a food security a priority in an ever changing world.

The letter comes as the UK not only has to deal with fast moving environmental movements, but also increasingly has to cope with more shocks to its food system caused by conflicts, such as those in Ukraine and Iran.

The letter warns that each new shock places greater pressure on a system that is struggling more and more, urging Mr Burnham to strengthen the UK’s ability to withstand the impact of global events on its food supply. The letter said: “Each new shock lands on a food system with less capacity to absorb it.

“British production of fruit and vegetables has fallen 16% since 2015, and we now import 78% of our supply. The next food shock is not a question of if, but when.

"To meet it prepared, food has to stop being an afterthought for the Government: we need mechanisms to put food high on the priority list of every part of government, both national and local, so that any decisions that impact on health, farming, planning, and trade secure better access to healthy and sustainable food for everyone.”

The letter encourages the introduction of something known as the Good Food Bill, which would grant food policy a solid statutory platform and set targets to make Britain healthier and more secure from a food-based standpoint.